Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
