Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
